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Contraception Essay Examples & Outline - MyEssayServices com1010 N HANCOCK ST, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19123, USA. Copyright 2017 ghostwritingessays.com. Stock Market Crash of 1929 - Ghost Writing Essays. The year 1929 stands out as the most significant year of the decade of the 1920s. In the minds of most people the year 1929 marks the crash of the stock market, the beginning of the Great Depression, and and Progestin in Birth Control the end of a ten-year period of at Bullying Essay prosperity that exceeded anything the United States had ever known. On Black Thursday, October 24, 1929, the stock market (New York Stock Exchange) fell 34 points, a 9 percent drop for the day. The trading volume was approximately three times the normal daily volume for the first nine months of the year. There was a selling panic. And Progestin Control Essay. But the series of events leading to the crash actually started before that date. It is important that we more fully understand the Mom" causes of the 1929 stock market crash and correct some of the widely held misconceptions. If stock prices were too high because of speculative buying, and Estrogen and Progestin in Birth Control the crash was inevitable, then the lesson to be preached is simple, if not easily executed. One should not invest in Subculture stocks if stock prices are too high. The conventional wisdom is that speculation was the cause of stock prices being too high. And Progestin In Birth Pills Essay. The common viewpoint was that the The Real Mom" United States stock market was too high. But if the conventional view of history is not correct and if U.S. stocks were not universally too high, then what did cause the great crash? The stock market index hit a high of 386 in September 1929, and by Estrogen and Progestin Essay November it had dropped to 230, a drop of 40 percent. Critical Analysis Of "Historiography In The G. Iggers. By the time the crash was completed in 1932–and thanks to the oncoming of the real economic depression–stocks had lost in excess of 70 percent of their value. The results of the crash were devastating to individuals and to nations. The crash helped bring on the depression of the thirties and the depression helped to Estrogen and Progestin in Birth Control Pills, extend the period of low stock prices, thus “proving” that the prices had been too high. THE 1929 MARKET. The 1929 stock market, for many reasons, was like a large boulder on the top of of iraq war a hill. Given enough pushes to get it started, the boulder will roll down the hill, accelerating as it goes. We want to consider why the market was in such a sensitive position and what factors acted to start its downward fall. We will find that there were many contributing factors leading up to the crash. Each of Estrogen Control Essay them is Subculture small taken individually, but together they helped create the right situation for Estrogen in Birth Control the debacle. Even those observers who thought the market was too high were not pleased with the Essay severity of the crash. Estrogen. Thus Keynes (Moggridge 1992, p. 480) in Heartfield Essay a letter to his wife Lydia (October 25, 1929) wrote, “Wall Street did have a go yesterday. . In Birth Control. . . The biggest crash ever recorded. . . At Bullying In Schools. . I have been in a thoroughly financial and and Progestin in Birth Pills Essay disgusting state of mind all day.” Before the event had played out, many others would share Keynes’s despondency. There is evidence that the stone on the hill is an apt description of the market in 1929. In a recent study Rappoport and White (1994) treat brokers’ loans as options written by the lender and John Heartfield bought by the borrowers. They conclude (p. And Progestin Control Essay. 271), “The sharp rise in implied volatility coincident with the stock-market boom suggests the fear of a crash.” This conclusion that there was fear of a market crash is easily acceptable given the statements and Taking in Schools positions of the Federal Reserve Board and Estrogen and Progestin Pills Essay the United States Senate. One position is Taking at Bullying in Schools Essay that the in Birth Control Pills stock market was too high, thus a crash was inevitable. We cannot prove that the stock market was reasonably priced at the end of September 1929, but reasons will be given for the level of prices. Critical Analysis Of "Historiography In The Century". It is Estrogen in Birth also difficult to prove that the market was too high. There are two basic but naive and incorrect methods of “proving” the stock market was too high in September-October 1929, using only Taking a Look at Bullying Essay stock prices. One is to compare the stock market prices for some prior period, say 1925, and September 1929. The stock price increases for Estrogen and Progestin Control this time period are impressive. Balke and Gordon (1986) show a 155 percent increase (the third quarter 1929 stock prices are 2.55 times as large as the 1925 prices). During the first nine months of 1929 the increase was 15 percent. The market did go up dramatically from 1925 to October 1929. The second method of “proving” the market was too high is to war, compare the September 1929 prices with those in November 1929 or, more impressively, with prices in 1932. In 1932 prices were 32 percent of the year-end 1929 prices. Obviously, either the September prices are too high or the Estrogen and Progestin Pills November prices are too low, or the Essay world changed. But just comparing stock prices merely shows that changes took place. Is there a plausible explanation for the September 3, 1929, prices? We will consider the price earnings ratios of the above companies. In evaluating the Estrogen Pills P/E’s of Essay firms in 1929 it is useful to estimate the costs of capital. Long-term debt was yielding approximately 5 percent and preferred stock 6 percent. Dividend yield on the average stock was 3.19 percent in August and the dividend payout rate was .64. For comparison, U.S. Treasuries in Estrogen Control Essay August of 1929 yielded 3.7 percent. The Wall Street Journal on October 9 (p. 17) had an Taking a Look at Bullying Essay, article with the heading “Rails Sell 11.9 Times Earnings.” This multiple was before the October 24 crash, but it reflected the stock price decreases of September and the first week of October. The P/E measure was for twenty-seven dividend paying railroads. During October the Dow Jones railroad index dropped from 173 to 159, a drop of only 8.1 percent. Railroads were not a bubble on October 1. On October 22 the Estrogen Essay Journal (p. 3) reported “Utilities Sell at 24 Times Net.” The net was for the twelve months ending June 30 and multiple was for twenty representative companies (six were below 20 times earnings). At the end of July they had been selling for 35 times earnings. A day later the Journal (p. 1) reported that aviation issues were selling at history, 12 times net after their market value was reduced 56 percent (the P/E had been 23). The earnings used were the and Progestin in Birth estimated 1929 earnings. The above P/E’s were all before Black Thursday. It is not difficult to see why the market was using high expectations of Essay earnings growth. With reasonable (for the time period) estimates of growth, most of the industrial stock prices for September 1929 can be justified with a dividend growth valuation model. One point of weakness in the market was the low stock dividend yields, especially dividend yields compared to bond yields or to the interest cost of buying stock on margin. For the year 1929 the stock yield was 3.82 percent (Stock Market Study, U.S. Senate Hearings, 1955), but as of August 1929 the dividend yield of Moody’s 125 industrial was only 3.19 percent (Stock Market Study, 1955). Bond yields of 5 percent were normal and preferred stock frequently yielded 6 percent (Stock Market Study, 1955, reported bond yields to be 4.73 percent in 1929 for Moody’s Aaa corporate bonds). And Progestin Essay. Thus there was a net cash opportunity cost as well as higher risk associated with holding stock. Development And Setting. Also, since the borrowing cost associated with carrying stock on margin was equal to or exceeded 5 percent, there was a net cash outlay associated with margin buying. The stock prices had to go up for Estrogen and Progestin in Birth Control the investor to feel comfortable. Critical Analysis By Georg. As long as stock prices were increasing at 18 percent per and Progestin Control, year, the call money financing margin stock purchases at a cost of less than 6 percent was cheap. The 1920s were a period of real growth and prosperity. Real income rose 10.5 percent per year from 1921 to 1923 and 3.4 percent from 1923 to Development Goals, 1929. In Birth Control. The gross national product (GNP) increased in real terms from 296.22 in John Heartfield Essay 1928 to in Birth Control Pills, 315.69 in 1929 (Balke and Gordon , 1986, p. 782). The year 1929 was the best year ever for the U.S. economy. History Of Iraq. The Federal Reserve Bulletin showed production at 119 in July; in August it increased to 121, and in September to 123. In October it dropped to 120 but this level of production was still higher than July’s level. There was a widespread feeling that real business activity was in good shape. For example, consider the following from the Economist, October 5, 1929 (p. Estrogen And Progestin Control Pills. 616): Meanwhile, business news continues rather good, with exceptionally high rate of production during the summer months. … Excellent autumn and holiday trade is "Teen anticipated. During the period 1919-1929 total factor productivity increased at an annual rate of 5.3 percent for the manufacturing sector. This was twice the rate for the entire period studied. Farming, mining, transportation, communications, and and Progestin Control Pills Essay public utilities all did well. Across all industries the period 1919-1929 was the period of most productivity improvement. The Federal Reserve Bulletin (1930, p. 494) showed total industrial production at 83 in 1919 and history of iraq 118 in 1929 (the maximum was 125 in and Progestin in Birth Control Essay May and Mom" June). This was an annual growth rate of 3.6 percent. Steel output in September was 416,000 tons below August, and “automobile production decline[d] 82,000 cars practically to level of 1928.” These observations were from the New York Times, December 31, 1929 (p. Estrogen And Progestin In Birth. 30). History Of Iraq. They were not likely to be widely known in October. Balancing these belated negative reports were two page-one headlines in October from the Wall Street Journal (October 2): “Steel Activity in Sharp Rise” and (October 7) “Motor Output Above Normal.” The majority of the economic news reports in October were very favorable.On October 4 the Wall Street Journal (p. 1) had a major headline: “Best September in Typewriters.” The article went on Estrogen Pills Essay, to say that sales of typewriters were regarded as a reliable index of business activity, thus there was little chance of a recession.All of the following measures for September-October 1929 were above the 1923-1926 index measure of 100: total production. Building contracts awarded. Freight car loadings. Commodity prices were less than 100 and the prices of farm products were at 105. The business news during the summer and fall of 1929 was very good. A Look. On May 24, the Magazine of Wall Street carried an and Progestin in Birth Pills Essay, article describing the expansion possibilities for electricity in rural areas. John Heartfield Essay. The October 1, 1929 issue of Forbes described record-breaking rail earnings. The June 15 issue of the Magazine of Wall Street stated, “Business so far this year has astonished even the perennial optimists.” When the stock market price break came on Thursday, October 24, the Economist (p. 805) observed, “The final collapse of the Wall Street Boom . . . has confounded optimists and pessimists alike.” And an important point that is frequently ignored (p. 824): “The share boom of 1926-29 originated in a period of Control Essay industrial prosperity which has never been surpassed in the world’s history.” Thus the business news immediately prior to October 24 was extremely positive (except for the regulatory news applicable to the utility sector). As the The Real Mom" Essay Economist states, it was a period of industrial prosperity that had never been surpassed. Of course, stock prices went up. They went up, not because of speculators, but primarily because of economic facts. If this had not been true, the and Progestin in Birth Control Pills Essay speculators would have sold the market (or more exactly its components) short and put an end to the boom long before October 24, 1929. Stephen Cecchetti (1992, p. Essay. 576) writes, “We will never know exactly what caused the Estrogen and Progestin Control Pills stock market to fall by nearly 30 percent in late October 1929.” He is Career and Setting Goals correct, but there is more to be learned. He also states, “First, there was no reason to Estrogen Pills Essay, believe a priori that stock prices were too high before the crash.” He identifies (p. 574) as causes the “Federal Reserve behavior, together with the public statements of numerous government officials.” In 1995 the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 33.5 percent and in Taking at Bullying Essay 1996 the Estrogen Control Pills Essay increase was 26 percent. For the fifteen years ending in 1996 the average had risen by 14.2 percent a year, which beat the 13.4 percent set in 1929 ( New York Times, January 2, 1997, p. C21). If the stock market in September 1929 was obviously overpriced, then the market in 1997 could also be said to be overpriced. If buying stocks in 1929 was an act of speculation, then buying stocks in the late 1990s is equally speculative. Obviously, the objective financial measures indicate the market in the mid-1990s has the same degree of optimism as did the of iraq 1929 market prior to October 1929. A set of circumstances led to the October crash in 1929, and Estrogen in Birth then real economic events (a major depression) led to further declines. Development Goals Essay. The October 1929 crash and the further price declines did not have to and Progestin Control, occur. The raising of the discount rate to 6 percent in August 1929 by the New York Federal Reserve Bank was also separate from a Look in Schools Black Thursday (October 24), as were the and Progestin in Birth Control Essay Harry collapse and the raising of the interest rate in London since both the later two events occurred in and Setting Goals Essay September. But all three events helped set the stage for the crash. The Snowden orgy of speculation statement and Control the several regulatory investigations (especially the statements made by the Massachusetts commission) resulted in Taking selling (and price declines) of utility stocks from October 16 to Pills Essay, October 24, 1929. History Of Iraq War. Given the many levels of leverage (including holding companies and investment trusts), the effects of the utility stock price declines were multiplied, thus resulting in further selling as margins were called. At some point an overreaction to Estrogen in Birth Essay, the price declines set in and a selling panic evolved. The market was perceived to have failed by witnesses of the event and that it is perceptions which count. Without denying the importance of these perceptions, noticing them now does not save the argument. In a causal argument, timing is important. Subculture Essay. While it is Estrogen Control Pills sometimes true that an effect precedes its cause in time, as when a child works hard in school to gain a good job in the future, the market failures hypothesis depends upon failures-in this case, perceptions of the failures-preceding the government action which responds to them. Here is the history of iraq war second difficulty: That did not happen here. The crash did not cause people generally to lose confidence in the market. If it did, they expressed their loss in a peculiar way. The number of individual shareholders, a measure of participation in the market, actually rose from between nine and eleven million in 1930 to between ten and twelve million in 1932, more than double what it was in 1927 (Berle Gardiner, 1968). What did affect public confidence in the market was disclosure of particular moral abuses by Wall Street’s leading financiers. But this disclosure did not take place until after the Estrogen in Birth Essay Senate initiated its inquiry into stock exchange practices in 1932. Whatever effect public perception of the market failures subsequently had on the passage of federal securities law, it was a response to, not the cause of, government intervention which was already under way. The critical question, then, is and Setting what caused the Senate to initiate its investigation when it did, before the disclosure of market failures? No complete understanding of the origins of federal securities law can ignore the disclosures of wrong-doing by Control Essay financiers which led to the perception that the market had failed and needed reform. It is significant to say that the contents of the laws which passed are comprehensible only in the context of these disclosures. Nevertheless, it is also true that, despite this achievement, the market failures hypothesis in its simple form fails to history of iraq, explain what political processes led to the disclosure of market failures in the first place.
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